“Would love to be there right now... I hear Coco View calling my name; come home, come home, come home...” - DWolgast
Doc's Daily Weather Report
The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast CoCoView is at 16.3°N Latitude x 86.5°W Longitude
In the NW Caribbean Sea
The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Skies will be mostly cloudy. There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours. Winds will be moderate and easterly in direction at 5 mph to 20 mph or less. Seas will be moderate to calm at 1 to 3 ft. or higher. The air temperatures will range from the high 70sºF to the mid to high 80s ºF or 26°C to 27ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 80°F to 82°F or 26ºC to 27ºC.
The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Gulf of Mexico - A weakening cold front over the northern Gulf will drift SE today while a reinforcing cold front enters the NW Gulf this afternoon...merging with the weak front tonight. The front will then reach the central waters Friday before stalling out over this area Sat...dissipating late in the weekend or early next week.
2. Caribbean Sea - Tropical Storm Matthew near 14.0N 64.7W 1002 MB at 5 am EDT moving W at 14 kt. maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Matthew will move to 14.1N 69.2W early Fri while strengthening to a hurricane...13.8N 72.2W early Sat...then 14.5N 74.0W early Sun as it begins a turn to the NW and N...approaching E Cuba and the Windward Passage Mon.
3. ...Special Features...
3a.Tropical Storm Matthew at 29/1200 UTC is centered near 14.1N 65.5W or about 260 NM S of San Juan Puerto Rico and about 230 nm ENE of Curacao moving west at 14 KT. Maximum sustained winds are 60 KT with gusts to 75 KT. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Numerous heavy showers associated with it are happening from 12N to 16N between 60W and 65W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 59W and 65W. Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Friday morning. All interests in the Bay Islands and on the North Coast of Honduras should monitor this system closely as it tracks westward toward us. Currently this system does not pose a threat to the Bay Islands and north coast of Honduras. But all interests here should monitor this system as it moves west towards us.
4a. A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 07N to 17N with axis near 24W, moving at 15 kt over the past 24 hours according to satellite and global model guidance. This wave is newly introduced based on global tropical waves diagnostic guidance and latest passes of scatterometer data. Abundant moderate to high low level moisture and a diffluent wind environment at the middle and upper levels support numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 12N to 16N between 21W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 17N E of 29W.
4b. A tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic extending from 08N to 16N with axis near 33W moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This is a low amplitude wave in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery and Meteosat enhanced imagery show dry air in the northern wave environment that along dust support lack of convection at the time. Scattered showers are from 09N to 12N between the wave axis and 39W.
4c. A tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic extending from 05N to 14N with axis near 45W expected to move at 15 kt over the next 24 hours. Unfavorable deep layer wind shear is in the northern wave environment supporting lack of convection N of 12N. CIRA LPW imagery show a moderate moist environment elsewhere with pockets of dry air mainly W the wave axis where isolated showers are observed to 50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong showers are from 08N to 12N between 38W and 44W.
4d. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean extending from 09N to 20N with axis near 86W moving W at 15 KT over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of abundant low level moisture and favorable deep layer wind shear that support isolated heavy showers and tstms S of 20N between 81W and 87W.
The Tides: Moon and Sun
low tide 1:32 am LT Sunrise – 5:37 am LT>93° East
high tide 7:54 am LT Sunset – 5:37 pm LT < 267° NW
low tide 1:45 am LT Moon Rise – 4:28 pm LT<85° East
high tide 7:36 pm LT Moon Set – 4:59 am LT>273º West
When planning a vacation to Roatan you should be aware that, like other countries in the Caribbean, the island is a tropical region with year-round warm temperatures. Monthly averages range from a low of 72°F (22°C) to a high of 89°F (31°C), and even the coldest night will still be comfortably warm.
The weather year round on Roatan is mostly sunny and markedly temperate when compared to northern climes. The seasonal differences are much more subtle than in northern latitudes, but they do exist.
February through May the easterly trade winds are moderate and rainfall is negligible. The ocean water begins to warm and air temperatures range from the high 70s °F to the low 80s °F.
June 1st marks the start of the tropical season in the Western Hemisphere. Roatan is well off the common major hurricane tracks; experiencing about one major hurricane every 20 years. From June through mid-October, skies are mostly sunny with a chance of intermittent rain showers.
By mid-October, ocean water temperatures are in the low to mid- 80s °F and air temperatures are in the mid-80s °F to low 90s °F. Trade winds are the strongest during the month of July.
In the Western Caribbean Sea, ocean water temperatures reach their peak around the middle of October. This coincides with the beginning of winter in the northern hemisphere. The cold fronts that bring snow to Canada and the USA make their way south to us, eventually. When this cool air mass collides with the warm tropical air, the result is rain.
During the fall and winter, when a cold front passes through, night time air temperatures can fall into the high 60s°F. Dive parkas, hoodies and hot chocolate are the order of the day. However, overcast skies and rain will soon give way to sunshine and higher temperatures.